Armenia faces election fears ahead of historically significant parliamentary vote

Armenia is preparing for parliamentary elections amid a climate of fear, with rumors circulating about 300,000 Azerbaijanis returning or Armenian troops being sent to Ukraine. Polls show Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's party with a clear lead, but for voters the question is less about choosing the best option and more about avoiding the worst-case scenario.

Armenia is preparing for historically significant parliamentary elections in a tense atmosphere where various rumours about the country's future are circulating among the public. Armenians are concerned by claims of 300,000 Azerbaijanis returning to Armenia, the same number of Armenians being sent to fight in Ukraine, and the erosion of the nation's identity.

Pashinyan leads in polls

According to election polls, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's party has a notably significant lead over its competitors. Yet many Armenians do not view the current elections as a conventional choice between a better and worse political alternative — for them, the question is rather how to prevent the worst-case scenario from happening.

Russian pressure and security threats

Ahead of the elections, fears are also circulating in society about possible Russian punishment if the country makes political decisions that Moscow finds unfavourable. Armenia has sought in recent years to diversify its foreign policy direction and move closer to Western partners, which has created tensions with its traditional ally Russia.

The elections are taking place as Armenia seeks to find its place in a transformed geopolitical reality following the 2020 war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh and the region's complete transfer to Azerbaijani control in 2023. These events have profoundly affected Armenian self-perception and understanding of the nation's security.