Estonian experts divided over Russia's potential Baltic attack risk

The Wall Street Journal has reported that Russia may attempt to attack Baltic states after its war against Ukraine. Estonian security experts hold differing views on the likelihood and timeline of such a scenario, with former Defence Forces commander Martin Herem warning that Russia would not need much time to prepare.

Estonian security experts are divided over whether Russia could attempt a military attack on the Baltic states, following a Wall Street Journal report raising the possibility that Moscow might turn its aggression toward Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania after its ongoing war in Ukraine.

Herem: Russia needs little preparation

Former Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces Martin Herem argued that Russia would not require significant preparation time to launch such an attack. Herem's assessment reflects a more cautious and alert reading of Russia's military intentions, suggesting the threat should not be dismissed as distant or theoretical.

Other Estonian experts, however, take a more measured view, questioning whether Russia — already deeply committed to its war in Ukraine — has the military capacity or political will to open a second major front against NATO member states in the near term. The Baltic countries are all full members of NATO, meaning any attack would trigger the alliance's collective defence clause under Article 5.

Baltic security under scrutiny

The Wall Street Journal report has reignited debate across the region about the credibility and timeline of a potential Russian threat to the Baltics. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have long warned Western allies about the dangers posed by Russian aggression, and have significantly increased defence spending and hosted NATO troops on their soil.

The divergence among Estonian analysts illustrates the broader uncertainty surrounding Russia's long-term strategic intentions. While some argue that a weakened Russia will be deterred by NATO's presence, others caution that underestimating Moscow's willingness to escalate could prove dangerous.