Opinion: When Russia struggles at the front, hybrid attacks on Europe intensify

Security expert Erkki Koort warns that while direct Russian military action against Europe seems unlikely, the continent must prepare for intensified hybrid warfare. Writing for Postimees, Koort argues that Russia historically escalates hybrid operations when facing setbacks on the battlefield.

Security expert and Estonian Academy of Security Sciences analyst Erkki Koort warns in a new opinion piece that Europe must brace for increased hybrid attacks from Russia — particularly when Russian forces are under pressure on the front lines in Ukraine.

Koort, writing for Postimees, argues that a clear pattern has emerged over recent years: whenever Russia experiences military setbacks, it compensates by ramping up hybrid warfare operations targeting Western nations. These operations include cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, sabotage of infrastructure, and attempts to destabilize European societies from within.

No Direct Threat, But No Room for Complacency

While Koort does not foresee direct Russian military aggression toward Estonia or other NATO members in the near term, he stresses that the absence of conventional threat does not mean Europe can lower its guard. Hybrid warfare, by design, operates in the grey zone below the threshold of open armed conflict — making it harder to detect, attribute, and counter.

The expert emphasizes that European governments and security services need to invest in resilience, public awareness, and cross-border cooperation to effectively respond to these threats. He also calls on European citizens not to succumb to fear, arguing that a frightened and polarized society is precisely the outcome Russia seeks to achieve through hybrid operations.

Europe Must Prepare, Not Panic

Koort's central message is one of calm preparedness rather than alarm. He argues that understanding the logic behind Russia's hybrid playbook — escalation during military difficulty — gives Europe both the analytical framework and the strategic advantage needed to stay ahead of the threat. Awareness, he concludes, is itself a powerful form of defence.