Super El Niño coming: threatens Europe with drought and extreme heat

Scientists warn that the summer of 2026 will see a new El Niño phenomenon, which journalists are calling a super El Niño. Following record-breaking heat in 2023 and 2024, this new climate phenomenon may bring drought and extreme heatwaves to Europe.

The consequences of the climate crisis are becoming ever more evident year after year. In 2023, the El Niño climate phenomenon was the main topic worldwide — that year saw the highest average temperature on Earth ever recorded. But in 2024, even that record was broken. Europe now faces a new threat: according to scientists and journalists, a so-called super El Niño is on its way.

El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon in which surface waters in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean warm up unusually. This in turn affects weather patterns around the globe — in Europe, it often means a hot and dry summer, while in Russia it brings extreme heatwaves. The summer of 2026 has not yet begun, but extreme heat has already arrived in Europe.

Climate scientists stress that the effects of El Niño are not limited to heat alone. The phenomenon can intensify drought periods, which affects agriculture, water supplies and forest fire risk. In some regions, there is also a risk of heavy rainfall and flooding at the same time.

The European Commission's climate service Copernicus has previously warned that climate fluctuations will become stronger in the future and extreme weather events will become more frequent. In the context of a super El Niño, this means that the summer of 2026 could be one of the most difficult in the near future.

For Estonians, the impact of climate change is also tangible: summers have become hotter and drier, and global weather phenomena also affect our agriculture and living environment. Experts recommend preparing for the increasing likelihood of extreme weather conditions at both national and personal levels.